China¡¯s once-booming student recruitment market is entering a more difficult phase, with families tightening budgets and overall enrolment growth expected to slow worldwide, according to the latest analysis of the country¡¯s education trends.

Despite this tougher climate, the UK remains one of the most sought-after destinations for Chinese students?owing to visa stability and its strong reputation, according to consultancy group Bonard Education.

The company¡¯s latest China market data ¨C shared on an 8 July webinar ¨C highlighted shifting student preferences and widening economic pressures.

Su Su, senior research manager at Bonard China reported that student visa approvals for Chinese students fell across most major destinations in early 2025, with about 11,000 fewer visas issued in the first quarter, compared?with the same period in 2024.?

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Canada saw the sharpest fall, down 21 per cent from 2023 to 2024, mainly?because of the country¡¯s decision to impose stricter visa caps to ease housing shortages.?The UK and US also recorded declines of 6 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.

Despite this, the UK stood out for maintaining a relatively high visa grant rate of 93 per cent for Chinese students in early 2025.?

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However,?Su warned that significant growth from China should not be expected in the near future.

Students are increasingly exploring alternative destinations in Asia and seeking better value for money, Bonard¡¯s?analysis said.

Su described China as ¡°no longer the easy gold mine it once was¡±, and said the market still holds scale and importance, but is changing fast, with economic conditions one of the main drivers behind this shift.?

China¡¯s per capita disposable income growth slowed from 6.3 per cent in 2023 to 5.3 per cent in 2024, with youth unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds rising to 18.8 per cent in mid-2024.?

Su said economic pressure was making families ¡°more price-sensitive¡± and focused on value.?

¡°The economic pressure is real. Families, especially the middle class, are becoming more price-sensitive, make every dollar count,¡±?she said.

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Families are increasingly asking whether study abroad will lead to jobs, and career outcomes, flexibility and affordability are now the main decision factors.?

Bonard found growing interest in short career-focused postgraduate programmes and practical skill-based training, as well as shorter English-language courses that offer flexible or cost-effective pathways ¨C sometimes linked to work or migration opportunities.

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Lower-cost destinations such as Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong are gaining attention, particularly for short-term courses.?

The US, by contrast, has seen a decline in promotion by Chinese education agencies.?Australia¡¯s share is rising, driven by its more affordable pricing, though visa approval rates have softened.

Bonard also released its updated China Agency Map, tracking more than 1,200 active education agencies across 51 cities and said the agency market would remain critical for student recruitment, but it is increasingly competitive and fast-moving.?

Its core message to international universities was to adapt quickly.

¡°Rising competition, tighter budgets, and shifting destination preferences means that we have to act differently, and it is time to adapt ¨C and fast,¡±?Su said.

While overall growth from China may slow, the market¡¯s size and cultural emphasis on education continue to make it ¡°far too important to ignore¡±.

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tash.mosheim@timeshighereducation.com