The number of international students enrolling in the English higher education sector has fallen by more than a tenth this year, according to early indications that highlight a 17 per cent drop in overseas master’s recruitment.

The Office for Students (OfS) asks providers in England to record their likely total student numbers for the 2024-25 academic year for its annual �����ܰ������.

It shows that there were 305,560 new overseas entrants across all modes and levels of study in the current academic year – about 30 per cent of the total.

The total number across providers with consistent data fell 11 per cent on 2023-24 – on top of a 3 per cent fall last year.

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Lil Bremermann-Richard, chief executive of Oxford International Education Group, told ����Vlog that the sector should be concerned by the figures.

“It is naive to think that because there is a challenging immigration environment for students in Canada and Australia that the UK will have more students,” she said.

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“Students are concerned about the perception of internationalisation by the big four anglophone countries and they are looking at options in new destinations that are offering very attractive schemes for study and future employability.”

The survey, which is completed mid-year, represents only students in the approved (fee cap) category of the OfS register. It is used to calculate funding allocations for 2025-26 and includes some elements of forecasting for students starting their studies after 1 December.

Experts said the fall in overseas enrolment last year was related to “noise” around the ban on students on taught master’s courses bringing dependants into the UK.

This year’s figures show the full effects – with the number of new postgraduate taught students falling 17 per cent across the sector.

Cohorts unaffected by the ban saw increases in enrolment – a 2 per cent rise among students at undergraduate level and a 22 per cent rise among those on postgraduate research courses.

Some large universities had dramatic decreases in overseas numbers, which Bremermann-Richard said would be worrying because they could be “facing real financial challenges”.

One of the largest decreases was at the University of Lincoln – 64 per cent down year-on-year – which said recruitment has been curtailed among students who typically brought dependants with them.

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“We have also seen a decrease in students from countries affected by cost implications, such as visa fees, NHS surcharge and currency fluctuations,” said a spokesperson. Lincoln expects to break even financially this year having taken prudent steps to respond to financial pressures, they added.

Other notable falls included the University of Bedfordshire (down 63 per cent) and the University of Winchester (57 per cent).

“The mood music has changed with the new government, but these things take time to feed through fully to the market,” said Robin Mason, pro vice-chancellor (international) at the University of Birmingham.

“It’s really tough going. Anybody who’s got a budget and a business plan that has growth in international students has to gain market share in a market which is at best flat. And not everybody can gain market share, that’s the simple arithmetic.”

The number of new entrants almost tripled at the University of Suffolk and Leeds Trinity University. There were also significant uplifts at the University of Greater Manchester (64 per cent) – formerly the University of Bolton –  and Plymouth Marjon University (60 per cent).

Mason said demand from China was roughly flat because of a “softening economy” and the growing belief that a degree from a Russell Group university was no longer a “cast iron guarantee to a graduate job” back home.

In addition, fewer students are applying from the price-sensitive Indian market, while Nigerians continue to be challenged by their poor exchange rate, he said.

“We saw some dangers ahead and we ensured that the blockages that can exist when it comes to international student recruitment were cleared out because there was sufficient risk to all of the major markets,” said Mason.

In contrast, there were falls of 37 per cent at the University of Sheffield, 33 per cent at the University of Leeds, 24 per cent at the University of Southampton and 21 per cent at the University of Newcastle.

“What you’re starting to see is even well-established universities saying that there’s a need for a fundamental revamp of the operating model,” said Mason.

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Growing institutions can afford to cross-subsidise less popular courses and research programmes but this was becoming increasingly difficult where is no margin from international student recruitment, he added.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com