The UK government was expected to resist pressure to set an ambitious new target for growing international student numbers despite claims that aiming for 1 million would send a clear message the country really is “open for business”.

Officials in Westminster are finalising a new international education strategy to replace the one launched in 2019 that aimed for 600,000 overseas students by 2030, with some in the sector believing that a fresh target would have a tangible impact on university enrolments.

But, with students continuing to be embroiled in wider immigration debates, others fear talk of large increases would leave universities “hostage to fortune”.

It is understood that no decisions on setting a target have been made but those involved in the process recognise it would be “politically difficult”, and vaguer talk of “stable” or “sustainable” growth was seen as a more likely outcome for the final document, due to be published in April.

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The strategy is viewed as a chance to turn Labour’s warm words on international students into action amid a crucial few months for internationalisation, which will also see a White Paper on immigration published and potential changes to the visa regime ahead of June’s spending review, when ministers are expected to set out a longer-term funding deal for the sector.

It is being overseen by the Education Sector Advisory Group, which includes representatives from the Department for Education and the Department of Business and Trade, with the Foreign Office also now involved in a move seen as beneficial to universities, given its renewed focus on “soft power” under Labour.

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While universities are not expecting significant movement on key issues such as visas for graduates and students’ dependants, it is hoped the strategy could usher in more stability after years of policy fluctuations, with better coordination between government departments.

A new recruitment target would be the standout measure if it were to be included in the strategy, though ministers have no direct control over the numbers coming.

Nick Hillman, director of the ����Vlog Policy Institute, said setting a figure in the last strategy sent a “really powerful signal” and served as a “galvanising” force even if it was relatively unambitious and in the event was met years early.

“My view now is that we should have a new target and that it should be ambitious. Otherwise, it will be harder than it should be to get the whole of Whitehall rowing in the same direction,” said Hillman.

A target makes it harder for the ����Vlog Office – responsible for immigration – to oppose international students and allows key departments to “knock heads together” if it isn’t being met, said Hillman, who added that it would “also send a signal to the rest of the world that the UK is open for business”. He said he would “start with trying to reach a million in a fairly short time frame”.

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Diana Beech, chief executive of London Higher, agreed that the figure would need to be “in the range of 750,000 to a million students by the end of the decade” if the UK was serious about growth, but cautioned this “risks grabbing the headlines for all the wrong reasons”.

Continued pressure to bring down net migration, along with the rising popularity of Reform UK and the Conservatives making their own pledges about tightening immigration rules further, means Labour may baulk at the idea of setting a new target, said Beech.

Hillman said that any new target should be accompanied by taking students out of the net migration statistics – a long-held wish for many in the sector that he said was “long overdue”.

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The Office for National Statistics is reviewing its approach to this data but there is not thought to be much enthusiasm for the move in Westminster currently, with ministers anxious about being seen by the wider public as cooking the books.

Beech said that, while a headline national target could be unpalatable for Labour, the government could work with regional authorities to set goals for different areas, given the appetite for growth varies by place.

Janet Ilieva, an international education specialist and founder of Education Insight, said she was in favour of “firm commitments” in the strategy, including an “ambitious target for international students studying UK programmes” as it would “signal ambition and provide a unifying goal for the education sectors”.

The UK education and immigration systems should also recognise the growing popularity of transnational education (TNE) programmes, she said, which may involve studying both in the UK and a home country. Infrastructure that supports both long- and short-term student mobility needed to be better developed to facilitate these growing trends, Ilieva said.

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tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com