Australian universities’ international arms can look forward to a year of stability, but tightened regulation – particularly of students from South Asia and those trying to extend their time Down Under – could ruffle the waters.

International education consultancy Studymove has predicted a continuation of last year’s steady trends that produced a 1 per cent increase in commencements from foreign higher education students, despite a moderate fall in the number of visas granted.

However, intensified scrutiny of visa applications from the two fastest-growing major markets – Bangladesh and Nepal – could affect overseas student recruitment, according to Studymove director Keri Ramirez.

The risk ratings of most South Asian nations were increased in early January. Ramirez said this did not necessarily signal an end to last year’s double-figure growth rates for higher education students from Bangladesh and Nepal.

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He said commencing numbers from Nepal, Australia’s third top source market, had increased by about 27 per cent in 2025 despite the unfavourable visa processing arrangements that had prevailed the previous year under ministerial direction 107.

“Nepal, in particular, has shown a great level of resilience…and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bangladesh is the same,” Ramirez said. “I think the government is trying to avoid a potential bubble that could affect the reputation of those source markets.”

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His analysis found that the number of higher education visas awarded to applicants outside Australia between July and October last year had been 17 per cent lower than in the equivalent period of 2024. But overall visa grants had fallen by only 6 per cent because of a surge in applications from within Australia.

The government has moved to ban universities and colleges from paying commissions for the early recruitment of foreigners studying with local competitors. Ramirez said the impact of these changes would not be felt until the latter half of the year, and he did not expect a significant effect on higher education visa applications.

“That doesn’t mean [there will not] be some challenges,” he conceded. “We’re going to need a period just to see how both providers and education agents adapt to the new policy framework.”

Ramirez said overseas demand had reoriented towards undergraduate study last year, away from the strong growth in postgraduate programmes during 2023 and 2024. International commencements in bachelor’s courses between January and September were 19 per cent higher than in the corresponding period of 2024, with particularly strong increases in education, engineering and commerce.

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At the same time, postgraduate commencements had fallen by 9 per cent. Ramirez said demand from older students had most likely softened due to a weakening of Australia’s labour market and the roll-out of less generous post-study work arrangements.

Universities and colleges need to change their overseas marketing strategies as a result, he said, with school-leavers and their parents now key promotional targets.

Universities are also turning back to scholarships – a euphemism for discounts – to attract students, but Ramirez said he expected them to be used more sparingly than in the past.

Studymove found that average international tuition fees would rise by more than 6 per cent this year, compared with an increase of just over 5 per cent in 2025. Undergraduate fee hikes at individual universities will range from 0.4 per cent to 16.7 per cent, the analysis suggests.

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com