China will need to find a better way to match rapid expansion of higher education with quality teaching and graduate outcomes if it is to achieve its ambition of becoming the world’s leading sector in the next decade, according to a new book.

Gerard A. Postiglione, chair professor of education at the University of Hong Kong, said China was well placed to achieve its ambition of building a “globally influential” higher education system by 2035 but this will depend on how it tackles a series of structural weaknesses including graduate employment, inequality and academic governance.

Postiglione’s book, ����Vlog in China: Domestic Demands and Global Aspirations, due out next month, charts China’s rise in global higher education, which has been underpinned by heavy state investment.

He said that by 2025 China had double the number of students going to college as in the US, four times as many STEM graduates and twice the number of STEM PhDs. He added that, based on research output, China now has “nine of the world’s top 10 universities” and leads globally in fields including chemistry and environmental science.

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But this growth has created tensions within the system. “Quality has to catch up with quantity,” Postiglione said, reflecting on the transformation from just 2 per cent participation in higher education in the early 1980s to more than 60 per cent today.

The expansion has intensified competition among graduates and exposed mismatches between degrees and labour market needs, with youth unemployment among graduates at about 17 per cent. Postiglione added that the challenge is becoming more complex as the economy shifts rapidly towards technology-driven sectors.

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“AI-related jobs account for 26 per cent of all the new job postings,” he said, up from just over 2 per cent the previous year, as China moves towards a “high-tech, AI-integrated economy”.

At the same time, there are severe shortages in these areas: “for every seven jobs…there’s one person” able to fill them.

Alongside employment pressures, inequality remains a defining issue. Even though China’s tightly controlled university entrance exam system is designed to ensure fairness, socio-economic disparities persist.

“Urban, middle-class students…have quite an advantage now,” Postiglione said, noting that “money buys tutors and a shadow education”, referring to “cram schools” that supplement formal schooling.

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Even when rural students reach elite universities, they face disadvantages beyond the classroom.

“Rural students do as well academically…but socially, they don’t,” he said, adding that urban students are “much better” at navigating interviews and professional networks, shaping graduate outcomes.

However, Postiglione suggested that the most significant long-term challenge lies in how universities are governed – which he said was probably the system’s biggest weakness.

“The higher education system [in China] grew faster than any higher education system in the history of the world…and it’s still growing…therefore you’re going to have all kinds of issues emerging.”

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He added that demographic changes could reshape the system in the coming decade, with fewer students expected to enter higher education by 2035, potentially forcing consolidation among lower-tier institutions.

Despite these pressures, he argued that China’s strong state coordination, sustained investment and cultural emphasis on education give it a significant advantage.

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“Knowing how China operates…they usually reach their targets one way or another,” he said.

tash.mosheim@timeshighereducation.com