鈥淭his is a major initiative that will revolutionise higher education in this country and improve the lives of so many of our people.鈥 So said Bernie Sanders of Hillary Clinton鈥檚 plan for 鈥渄ebt-free鈥 public higher education, in the July speech in which he endorsed his former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination.
One of Mr Sanders' attention-grabbing pledges, highly popular with his supporters, had been to abolish tuition fees in public higher education and make it free for all. Ms Clinton鈥檚 on college stated that students should not have to borrow to pay for tuition, books or fees, but would have required families to make 鈥渁n affordable and realistic family contribution鈥.
However, in July she went further and committed to a plan that would mean by 2021 students from families with income up to $125,000 (拢95,000) will at in-state four-year public colleges and universities, a pledge covering 80 per cent of US families, according to her campaign.
Supporters of the plan will say that in the world鈥檚 most important, and most marketised, higher education system, it could mark an important shift towards seeing higher education as a public good accessible to all.
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Ms Clinton鈥檚 revamping of her policy was seen as an attempt to win backing from Mr Sanders and his supporters. But the political move brings important policy questions: whether this is the right remedy on college affordability and whether it has any chance of being implemented by a Clinton White House.
鈥淒uring the primaries and in the debates, the main distinction that Clinton drew between her [original] plan and the Sanders plan was that the Sanders plan would pay for higher education for a lot of people who didn鈥檛 need help,鈥 said William Doyle, associate professor of public policy and higher education at Vanderbilt University, a lead author on the 2016 ,听which found that affordability had declined in all 50 states since 2008.
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He added that it 鈥渄oes appear that Clinton鈥檚 new plan will spend a lot of money on students who would have gone to college without additional help 鈥 the same critique she levelled at Sanders鈥.听
Professor Doyle said that private institutions, not included in the plan, are 鈥渘ot necessarily elite or selective institutions鈥 and often 鈥減lay a big role in ensuring college access鈥.
He added: 鈥淭here鈥檚 a real question of whether there鈥檚 an adequate supply of public college spots to enrol all of the students who are supposed to go tuition free.鈥澨
The Clinton plan would provide federal grants to states to help remove tuition fees. But the plan would rely on state governments buying in and making a contribution.
The plan would be 鈥渇ully paid for by limiting certain tax expenditures for high-income taxpayers鈥, the Clinton campaign has said.听Her aides have stated an estimated cost of $500 billion over 10 years, according to media reports.
Iris Palmer, a senior education policy analyst at the thinktank New America, said that there was a question over whether the costs of the programme could result in entry requirements at public colleges being toughened to limit numbers, a result that 鈥渆nds up benefitting wealthy individuals鈥. There should be 鈥渓ow income enrolment targets鈥 to counteract this, she suggested.
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If Ms Clinton does win November鈥檚 presidential election (she leads Republican nominee Donald Trump in the polls), she would also have to get her college plans through Congress.
The Republicans currently have a majority in both houses, although House of Representatives and Senate elections will also be held in November.
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Ms Palmer suggested that to pass the debt-free college plans through Congress, Ms Clinton would need 鈥渁 filibuster-proof majority鈥 of the kind enjoyed by President Obama in his first term.
鈥淕etting something of this magnitude passed鈥ould be very, very challenging,鈥 she said, adding that to do so Ms Clinton might have to make debt-free college a 鈥減olitical priority鈥 in the way President Obama made the Affordable Care Act a priority in his first term.
Ms Palmer also said the plan would be 鈥渂uilding on top of the current system we have鈥, contrasting this with the 鈥渕ore radical鈥 proposals in New America鈥檚 2016 report, which called for a new federal-state relationship in higher education to replace the 鈥渋rreparably broken鈥 current system.
Professor Doyle said that most policy efforts on college affordability 鈥渉ave focused on 鈥榝eeding the beast鈥, trying to provide money to keep up with tuition increases鈥.
鈥淭he price of higher education is being driven up by two factors: institutions keep getting more expensive to run every year, and states haven鈥檛 been able to keep funding the increasing expense of higher education,鈥 he continued.
One big question for the Clinton plan, Professor Doyle said, is how it 鈥渨ill keep institutions from continuing to increase costs, and therefore prices, making this an expensive plan over the long term鈥.
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鈥淲hile institutions have been getting more expensive to operate, they don鈥檛 have to be as expensive as they are 鈥 there have to be more efficient ways of running these institutions.鈥 Any big plan on college affordability must 鈥減ush on institutions to 鈥榖end the cost curve鈥 in order for it to be sustainable over the long term鈥, he added.
POSTSCRIPT:
Print headline: Will Clinton鈥檚 debt-free plan lead to soaring fees?
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