France’s shift towards greater autonomy and competition among its higher education institutions is likely to continue, despite a parliamentary upset for second-term president Emmanuel Macron.

His Ensemble party won 245 seats in the 19 June legislative election, well short of the 289 needed for a majority. The left-wing New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 131, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally coming third with 89.

Although Mr Macron enjoys sweeping presidential powers after winning re-election in April, Ensemble must still agree a coalition or voting deal with other parties to get legislation through parliament, with the Republicans and their 61 seats offering the most likely allies.

Early signals suggested that the once-dominant force of the French right may be reluctant to empower Mr Macron’s centrist agenda. “There is no question of a pact, or a coalition, or an agreement of any form whatsoever,” party leader Christian Jacob told local media.

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But Emiliano Grossman, associate professor of politics at Sciences Po, said this did not rule out cooperation in any form.

“Even if they don’t manage to strike a deal on everything, they might strike a deal on some issues, and higher education could be part of that,” Dr Grossman told ����Vlog.

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“I would assume that we’ll continue moving towards more privatisation or more autonomy for universities, and more leeway in their capacity to self-organise and get onto the competitive market.”

A decades-long push towards more autonomy and competitive funding has been carried forward by left- and right-wing governments. A campaigning Mr Macron told French universities in January they were “halfway” through the transformation.

That metamorphosis is opposed by many on the left, but Yves Surel, a professor in comparative politics at Panthéon-Assas University (Paris 2), said that the opposition Nupes, which has agreed to sit as separate groups in parliament, would have “only limited means to negotiate and obstruct” reforms.

“The very divided nature of the debate on these issues makes it difficult to envisage any compromise between Macron’s liberal position, in the wake of the reforms of the last few years, and Mélenchon’s desire for a return to a public higher education service,” he said.

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Fragmentation means the coming days will see a flurry of horse-trading between political parties, and Professor Surel said it was “too early to know how the political equilibrium will be set up”.

Regardless of how parties coalesce, under French law another legislative election cannot be called for a year, meaning Mr Macron’s party must find a functional compromise with its political rivals.

Despite coming third, the election was a major victory for the far right, with Ms Le Pen’s National Rally increasing its seats almost tenfold and cementing the party’s entry into the political mainstream.

While its likely exclusion from political alliances will offer little chance to shape policy, the party’s strengthened position in parliament is likely to give more prominence to its rhetoric, said Vincent Dubois, professor of sociology and political science at the University of Strasbourg.

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“They will probably fuel the absurd debate launched by Macron’s former ministers on ‘wokeism’ and ‘Islamo-leftism’ that would gain ground in universities,” he said.

ben.upton@timeshighereducation.com