A potential victory by Plaid Cymru in next year’s Welsh elections could see reforms made to a scheme that supports Welsh students to study at leading UK universities, with the party likely set on reducing the amount of higher education funding that crosses the English border.

After an unexpected win in the by-election in Caerphilly – ordinarily a Labour stronghold – Plaid is eyeing success in the 2026 Senedd elections.  

If the nationalist party does manage to form a government, university leaders are predicting significant changes to the devolved nation’s higher education system.

In its 2024 manifesto, the party promised to review the Seren Academy programme, an initiative introduced in 2015 to help the best-performing Welsh school students enter top universities.

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But critics say the programme encourages Welsh talent to leave the country, with many students going on to study at institutions outside the devolved nation, including the universities of Oxford and Cambridge.

Government data shows that, of the Seren cohort who started university in September 2023, 1,351 students went to English universities, while 885 went to Welsh institutions. The data does not show how many went to institutions in other countries.

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Wendy Larner, vice-chancellor of Cardiff University, told ����Vlog she welcomed the idea of reforming Seren.

She said focusing on sending Welsh students to Oxford and Cambridge isn’t “particularly justifiable in the current context, and the students who tend to get access to that scheme are students who would have access to university anyway”.

“I think a review of the Seren scheme is probably on the cards and a good thing to do and I don’t think saying that is particularly controversial,” she continued.

Elwen Evans, chair of Universities Wales, which is calling for a government review of how higher education is funded, described the scheme as a “political hot-ish potato” and added that Labour had indicated it too was “looking to reshape and refocus the Seren programme”.

This would include looking more at vocational provision, as well as ensuring it wasn’t “being seen as a mechanism to encourage potential students to look outside of Wales”, added Evans, who is also vice-chancellor of the University of Wales Trinity Saint David.

“Certainly [Seren] is a programme where there has been a lot of discussion. Like so many things, it undoubtedly came from a good place, but perhaps it’s how it has been perceived and operationalised that has caused some of the political dialogue about it.”

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Either way, Evans added that Welsh policymakers and universities needed to focus on “driving participation rates” in Wales. Last year, university applications in Wales dropped to a 15-year low.

Plaid Cymru has also set out its intention to limit the amount of student funding that crosses the border by reducing grants paid to Welsh students who go on to study at universities in other UK nations.

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On announcing the plans earlier this year, the party’s economic spokesperson Luke Fletcher said Wales was “in effect subsidising English universities when Welsh universities are really struggling”.

Evans said that these topics were “the things that we need to look at” in a review of higher education.

“That’s what the review would be looking at…Have we got the balance right in terms of funding both internally in Wales and externally as well? I think it is an area where that discussion would be really useful.”

Asked whether the government should try to retain more Welsh students, Larner said she thought “students should be able to choose” and added that it was the job of universities to position themselves in a way that appeals to local students.

Dewi Knight, director of PolicyWISE, said that cutting grants for students crossing into England was “easier said than done”.

In particular, replacing them with student loans would have “a big effect on the loan book and the loan settlement, which will need negotiations with the Treasury in London because ultimately, it’s on their books”.

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“That could take a long time to negotiate, and I think you have to ask yourself as a new government: is that your priority? And do you want to use up political capital and patience in doing that, or is there a quicker route of trying to deliver on the goals that you want?”

chris.havergal@timeshighereducation.com