UK universities are set for another “highly competitive” clearing round in August as higher-tariff institutions look to scoop up domestic students in the face of an international student downturn. 

With A-level results set to be released on 13 August, institutions are predicting another surge in students attempting to use clearing to secure a spot at their favoured institution. 

Broadly, the number of university applications made through clearing has been increasing year-on-year for some time, with a record 77,000 people using the system to look for a university place last year.

Joanna Burton, head of higher education policy at the Russell Group, said: “In a nutshell, the big story this year is we’re looking at continuity rather than disruption.”

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Burton said there was still “strong demand” for Russell Group places, and that she expected the group of research-intensive universities to “match talented students with courses” if they had the spots during clearing.

“We’d see it as a positive that students can explore their options,” Burton said.

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There are concerns that lower- and medium-tariff institutions could lose out on students amid increased competition. 

Data analyst Mark Corver, former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said: “Providers are obviously very aware of these trends and applications going towards more selective universities – it’s certainly a trend that shows no sign of weakening, which is worrying to some.”

He suggested that higher-tariff universities will also be attuned to ongoing political conversations about the value of higher education, making domestic students even more attractive in clearing because they can help demonstrate institutions’ contributions to society and the economy. 

The number of international students coming to the UK also appears to be declining, further incentivising universities to recruit more domestic students. 

According to Lucia Costantini, senior consultant at dataHE, the latest Ucas admissions data suggests a “further acceleration in the long-term concentration of demand towards higher-tariff providers, with these institutions continuing to attract a growing share of the applicant pool”.

“As a result, while the sector as a whole may recruit more students, many medium- and lower-tariff providers are likely to face another highly competitive recruitment cycle,” she said.

But higher education providers across the board report strong application numbers from students, despite ongoing public debates about the value of a degree.  

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“Despite every attempt by all the political parties now to drive down the number of people going to university, we’ve still got an increase in people applying,” Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor at London Metropolitan University, told ����Vlog.

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Matthew Andrews, secretary and registrar at the University of Hertfordshire, agreed: “It’s good to see continuing commitment in progression to university, especially, but not only, from that school-leaving age group.

“There can be quite a lot of criticism of universities that we see in the media and from some politicians and it’s really pleasing to see that students will still see the value of a higher education, which yes, can be academic but also very vocational.”

Their comments come after a poll of the British public found the proportion of people who think a degree is not good value for money hit a record high.

Andrews said Hertfordshire’s application numbers were up for the second year in a row, with an 8 per cent increase this year. For London Met, the picture looks similar: Davies said it had experienced “a really good cycle” with a double-digit rise in undergraduate applications.

But Costantini said the trend could reflect the size of the current 18-year-old population rather than any real growth in appetite for higher education.

“Any increase in recruitment would be driven primarily by demographic growth rather than a step change in participation,” Costantini said.

“This distinction is particularly important as the sector moves closer to the projected decline in the UK 18-year-old population from 2030 onwards.”

Although last year some providers offered incentives such as iPads or money for students coming through clearing, Davies thought it unlikely such tactics would top anyone’s priority list this year.

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“I think everyone has worked out now that they don’t work – they don’t drive behaviours. It’s such a massive purchase students are making....a grand here or a laptop there doesn’t move the needle.”

georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com