Less-selective universities may have to consider new teaching models or mergers, experts have warned, as top institutions continue to ¡°make hay while the sun shines¡± by recruiting the lion¡¯s share of domestic students.

While many universities have been able to grow student numbers after a record increase in applicants, it will not be enough to fix the ¡°underlying systematic underfunding of the sector¡±, said Graham Galbraith, vice-chancellor of the University of Portsmouth.

He cautioned that higher-tariff universities again taking a larger proportion of students showed they are ¡°growing in an unsustainable manner¡±.

¡°If we allow this instability, where the higher-tariff institutions are frankly filling their places to make up for a shortfall of international students, the long term is that it takes out other parts of the sector.¡±

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Galbraith said clearing may help minimise the number of ¡°casualties¡± among non-elite institutions, but more thought needs to be given to the long-term future of universities.

Lucia Costantini, lead data scientist at the dataHE consultancy, said lower- and medium-tariff institutions have seen slight to moderate increases in domestic recruitment, coupled with reductions in international recruitment, resulting in a higher?proportion?of home students overall.

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¡°Whether this translates into a steady or strong year for lower- and medium-tariff institutions will depend on the level of activity of higher-tariff institutions during the remainder of the clearing period.¡±

DataHE estimates that the average A-level applicant achieved BBB. The percentage of students getting at least AAB reached the highest level recorded outside the pandemic.

Mary Curnock Cook, a former chief executive of Ucas, said the ¡°mixed¡± picture showed lower- and medium-tariff providers were stuck in a ¡°tough recruitment market¡±, particularly given demand from students aged 21 and over has fallen.

¡°Lower-tariff universities...might need to look at new models of higher education,¡± she said, noting that in US higher education, fully online learning is set to outpace fully in-person learning this year.

Higher-tariff institutions have focused increased recruitment on the arts and humanities, said Bob Savill, head of student recruitment and admissions at the University of Chichester, who predicted the ¡°hefty¡± 7 per cent increase in student numbers will have an impact on accommodation in their local areas and class sizes.

It was not surprising that universities are accepting as many students as possible because funding is ¡°such a difficult beast to manage let alone tame¡±,?added?Mary Richardson, professor of educational assessment at UCL.

But she said this demonstrates that undergraduate education is becoming more like an economic transaction ¨C turning academics into ¡°Deliveroo drivers¡± whose primary function is to deliver content.

¡°Providers need to be most worried about meeting expectations ¨C given the expected debt they will likely accrue, students want personalisation, high-quality environments to work in, they want a good experience.¡±

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Facing a shrinking youth population in a few years and current financial challenges, Chichester¡¯s Savill said higher-tariff universities will likely continue to ¡°make hay¡± while the sun shines for the next few years.

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¡°I think for the rest of the sector, they¡¯re probably not going to be making hay for the next two or three years. It¡¯s going to be very challenging and¡­one would imagine we¡¯ll see mergers, etc, in the coming year.¡±

Along with domestic demand rising, there was also a record number of undergraduate applicants from overseas.

Savill said these positive signs in the international market ¨C particularly for higher-tariff universities ¨C was a?big change from the ¡°doom and gloom¡± of last year.

Much of this rise in demand was driven by China, where applicant numbers increased by 13.1 per cent year-on-year and outnumbered students from Northern Ireland for just the second time.

Savill said recent restrictions in rival markets ¨C along with a less welcoming political climate in the US ¨C may have had an impact in overall numbers rising.

However, there was falling demand in other important source countries, including India (down a record 9.4 per cent), Hong Kong (down 5.5 per cent) and Malaysia (down 11.4 per cent).

Overall, Mark Corver, co-founder and former managing director of dataHE,?said the strong numbers will ¡°bring a large sigh of relief from universities¡±,?but he warned of the dangers of elite institutions dominating this cohort of international students.

¡°It will widen the effective resourcing gap between universities and mean things are not going to get any easier for lower-tariff [institutions] there.¡±

There were some encouraging signs for applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. DataHE found that the entry rate for those from the most deprived areas experienced significant growth and is now approaching the unusually high levels seen in 2021 during the pandemic.

But Gill Wyness, professor of economics at UCL, noted a few elements of caution, adding: ¡°There was a slight overall improvement in the proportion of student gaining the top grades, but the overall good news, as always, masks some striking inequalities in achievement.

¡°Students from London and the south east are continuing to pull away from the rest of the country.¡±

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The gap between the lowest-performing region, the north east of England, and the capital is now 10 percentage points.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com