Scottish politicians will have to face up to the financial problems affecting universities, even if the major parties’ manifestos generally fail to engage with the subject, policy analysts have said.

Ahead of the Holyrood election on 7 May, all of the main Scottish parties have now released their plans for government, but mentions of higher education have been scarce. 

The election comes at a crucial time for universities as many cut jobs and close courses in response to ongoing financial challenges.

Despite this, “the manifestos have got almost nothing to say really about higher education,” said Des McNulty, honorary professor at Glasgow Caledonian University and a former MSP. 

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He said that discussing higher education is “something the parties are keen to avoid in general – I don’t think that any of them see it as an area of political advantage”. 

“The manifestos strongly suggest that the future of Scotland’s universities is not currently a priority for any of the main parties,” agreed Stephen Boyd, director of thinktank IPPR Scotland.

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The Scottish National Party (SNP), which is widely expected to perform best at the election, has committed to maintaining free tuition for undergraduates and completing the ongoing cross-party review of higher education funding.

Other parties, including Labour and the Conservatives, have made similar commitments, although the latter did caveat that, while the party wants to maintain free tuition, it would also “look at alternative systems”. Only Reform stopped short of committing to free tuition fees, declining to take a stance either way.

Holding a review during the election period “allows [politicians] to almost swear off having to say anything on higher education funding”, said Alison Payne, research director at thinktank Enlighten. 

However, they won’t be able to avoid these questions for long, analysts warned. “They’re absolutely going to have to go there after the election,” said McNulty. 

But, with Scotland facing a projected fiscal gap of up to £5 billion by 2030, it is unclear how parties will tackle the issue, especially if tuition fees are off the table.

“Where none of the parties are offering a credible fiscal plan for the next parliament, it is difficult to know what increasingly tight budget rounds will mean for free tuition and universities more generally,” said Boyd. 

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“It’s highly unlikely that universities will be fully protected from the consequences of an intensifying fiscal squeeze over the next parliament. But how the squeeze will affect them remains to be seen.”

Payne added that, if tuition fees and graduate payments are not being considered, one of the only options left may be to further restrict the number of local students permitted to study at Scottish universities. 

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“We’re going to have to make some difficult choices,” she said, adding that the sooner policymakers address the challenges, the better.

At the same time, politicians are grappling with the issue of Scotland’s colleges, which also face severe funding challenges. 

The SNP manifesto also promises a review of the college sector. McNulty said pressure from the sector and recognition of the need to support the country’s skills gaps could “affect the scope for higher education spending”. 

While the SNP is expected to perform best in the election, it looks unlikely that it will get a majority and may therefore have to lean on other parties for support. 

Potential partners include the Scottish Greens and the Liberal Democrats, both of whom do go into greater detail about their promises for the sector in their manifestos, including pledging additional financial support for students. 

“What the Greens are saying or what the Lib Dems are saying could be part of a negotiation, either a coalition negotiation or a budget and supply negotiation,” said McNulty.

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However, he noted that the smaller parties would need to prioritise the issues they feel most strongly about. “My suspicion is that higher education probably wouldn’t be that high up the list.”

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com