Visa uncertainties are discouraging overseas study and risk pushing Australia off its perch as the most popular international education destination, research suggests.

A survey of over 4,800 mostly prospective students has found that many gauge the likelihood of visa hurdles from the outset, with around half saying it strongly influences their shortlist of potential study locations.

The issue is undermining interest in Australia, whose position as first-choice study destination is slipping. Twenty-four per cent of respondents nominated it as their preferred option, down from 31 per cent when a similar survey was conducted six months earlier.

The UK and US are challenging Australia’s primacy, with both countries named top destination by 21 per cent of respondents – up from 19 per cent for the UK and 14 per cent for the US.

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Non-Anglo destinations and transnational education (TNE) options are also increasing in popularity. Rising proportions of students say they have decided to save money and dodge the risk of visa refusal by enrolling in foreign branch campuses, twinning programmes or educational partnerships on home soil.

The figures, from the latest wave of “Emerging Futures” surveys conducted by education services company IDP, suggest that the cost and unreliability of visas – alongside tuition fees and living expenses – are driving students away from traditional models of overseas study.

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Interest in all modes of TNE has increased since the previous survey was conducted in March and April, while the proportion of respondents no longer considering any form of international study has risen from 11 to 16 per cent.

IDP Education’s chief partner officer, Simon Emmett, said the findings should be a wake-up call for Australia. “The world’s best students have more choice than ever, and right now, Australia is making itself harder to choose,” he said.

“International student numbers are not a tap we can simply turn back on when we choose to. We must be mindful that the policies we implement and the messages we send do not result in an over-correction in student demand.”

Visa rejection rates have soared in Australia, while the cost of lodging a visa application has almost quadrupled to A$2,500 (£1,311) over the past two financial years. The impact on revenue has led to job cut proposals at universities and college closures in the vocational education and English language training sectors.

The latest survey, conducted between mid-August and mid-September, preceded another round of significant changes to student visa settings. Most overseas students are now banned from bringing family members with them – removing a point of comparative advantage over the UK – while people wishing to renew their student visas often must leave Australia to do so.

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The government says these changes are necessary to wind back an unmanageable surge in international enrolments since the coronavirus pandemic. While the number of student visa holders in Australia has moderated to about 550,000, from a high point of 675,000 two years ago, the tallies of people on the visa categories favoured by former students – temporary graduate, skilled employment and bridging visas – are at record levels.

Many overseas students have switched courses soon after arriving in Australia, casting doubt on their genuine study intentions, while the government has highlighted an increase in fraudulent visa applications. Appeals against unsuccessful student visa applications rose 42 per cent last financial year, forcing the Administrative Review Tribunal to boost its staffing levels by 25 per cent. Between 1,500 and 2,000 asylum applications are lodged every month, with former students thought to make up much of the caseload.

But critics say the government’s efforts to address such issues are excessive, affecting genuine students as well as those using student visas as de facto work permits.

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The release of IDP’s survey results coincides with the start of the Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) in Sydney. Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia (IEAA), says this year’s forum is taking place against a backdrop of the “most restrictive” policy environment in memory.

IDP, the conference co-host alongside the IEAA, is exposed to restrictive policies in Australia and elsewhere. Last month, its share price fell to an all-time low of A$1.50 – down from a high point of A$38.40 in late 2021 – and it rejected two from international investment firm Blackstone, branding them “highly opportunistic” proposals that “fundamentally undervalued the business”.

the company’s annual general meeting on 27 October, IDP chair Tracey Horton highlighted a “multi-year transformation” that had already reduced costs by a net A$32 million. But she acknowledged the “significant impact” of changes in government policy settings, with international student numbers in key destination markets down by over 50 per cent following “record highs” in 2023 and 2024.

CEO Tennealle O’Shannessy said student numbers had fallen by more than 25 per cent in 2025-26 alone. The company expects volumes to slump by a further 20 to 30 per cent this financial year.

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The conference has arrived at a “pivotal moment” for a global international education industry that “looks very different today than it did 40 years ago”, O’Shannessy said. “The AIEC…remains one of the most important opportunities for our sector to share insights and shape its future. This year’s conference will be one of the most significant in its history.”

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com