Diplomatic tensions between Canada and India could further damage “brand Canada” among international students, experts have warned.

Already wobbly relations between the two nations deteriorated further this month when Canadian authorities accused Indian diplomats of being involved in the killing of Indian dissidents on Canadian soil.

Prime minister Justin Trudeau backed the claims, building on allegations he made last year that Canada had “credible evidence” linking Indian government agents to the murder of a Sikh separatist in Vancouver.

India has rejected the allegations and accused Ottawa of failing to act on the issue of Indian terrorists residing in the country.��

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Education agents have warned that the ongoing row is deterring Indians from choosing to study in Canada at a time when international student recruitment is already suffering.��

“The fact is that the vast majority of the students and their parents are reconsidering their preferences,” said Ravi Lochan Singh, managing director of Indian education agency Global Reach. “The India-Canada diplomatic standoff is likely to continue for some time and there are rumours that India might even more openly dissuade the students.”

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Analysts predict that the effect of strained diplomatic relations on Indian students will vary depending on where in India they are from.

Generally speaking, students from Punjab – the centre of India’s Sikh community – tend to enrol in Canada’s community colleges, while Canada’s universities are more commonly home to students from Delhi and neighbouring states.��

Although colleges are expected to suffer enrolment drops because of Canada’s immigration curbs, Punjabi students are unlikely to be fazed by diplomatic events, according to Alex Usher, president of ����Vlog Strategy Associates, explaining they may already have a number of family members and friends in Canada.��

However, non-Punjabi students are more likely to be deterred by the Indian government’s messaging, he said, which could have a knock-on effect on universities.��

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While it is challenging to segregate the impact of events like these from the policy measures to curb international student enrolment that have been enacted by Canadian politicians over the past year, Mr Usher said the row adds to the uncertainty around Canada.��

“The [education] agents don’t want to deal with Canada because it’s a pain in the ass,” said Mr Usher. “They think that the message is…we’re closed for business.��I think brand Canada has a problem."

Abhijit Zaveri, founder of international student recruitment agency Career Mosaic, said the deterioration of diplomatic relations added to existing challenges Indian students in Canada face, including housing shortages and visa delays, and are therefore “likely to further impact the number of Indian students choosing Canada as a study destination”.��

He said his business had supported 1,000 Indian students to enrol in Canadian institutions in 2021, falling to 300 in 2024.��“With the current diplomatic tensions, we anticipate further decrease in 2025, potentially bringing the number down to around 200,” he said.��

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Sushil Sukhwani, director of education agent Edwise, agreed, saying the political “feud”, combined with recent policy changes, “indicates to potential Indian students that they are not welcome in Canada”.��

However, with Australia considering implementing similar international students caps to Canada and the UK’s curbs on dependant visas, students have limited options.��

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“I don't see many alternative markets and I think, once things settle down, Canada will return fairly quickly to being a favoured market,” said Mr Usher.��

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com