Half of UK universities expect to be flagged by the ����Vlog Office’s new visa compliance measures amid a steep downturn in student recruitment.

A new survey of institutions by the British Universities International Liaison Association (Buila) has found 70 per cent saw a drop in numbers starting postgraduate courses in January 2026 compared with the year before. Overall enrolments are down 31 per cent.

The association said the fall was in part due to universities preparing for the UK’s new stricter visa controls and traffic light system, due in June, which is intended to clamp down on applicants using study visas as a “back door” to immigration.

Universities must maintain a visa rejection rate of below 4 per cent to receive “green” status, with those ranked “amber” immediately subjected to sanctions which can involve caps on recruitment.

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Buila found that half of universities responding said that they currently expected to receive at least one non-green rating under the new compliance framework.

This was despite many taking proactive steps to reduce risk, including suspending recruitment from markets seen as more likely to trigger refusals.

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The survey showed 82 per cent of universities reported a decline in enrolments from Pakistan, with numbers down by up to three-quarters, while 66 per cent reported declines from India, and 65 per cent from Bangladesh.

Other measures included enhanced “credibility checks” or “interview thresholds”, with students also asked to pay higher deposits and undergo stricter financial checks.

Chair of Buila Andrew Bird said the UK “already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity”.

“But the government keeps shifting the goalposts. The proposed traffic‑light system is being implemented far more harshly than originally intended. An ‘amber’ rating should serve as a warning, not trigger recruitment sanctions.”

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UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) appears to have already got stricter on visa issuance, with 60 per cent of universities reporting higher than usual levels of visa refusal in the January intake.

Buila called on UKVI to provide more detailed reasons for visa refusals, adding the body should also offer “greater transparency in decision‑making” and introduce an early warning system so that institutions can “respond proportionately and in real time”.

Large numbers of genuine students are at risk of being “driven away”, Bird warned, with the potential of causing long-term damage to the UK higher education sector’s competitiveness and global influence.

tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com