A post-Covid revival of domestic enrolments in Australian universities risks bypassing the areas of greatest need, with data suggesting that the green shoots are concentrated in large metropolitan universities.

Education minister Jason Clare said year-to-date figures revealed a 3 per cent increase in the number of Australians starting degrees this year, on top of a 3.7 per cent rise in 2024.

He said domestic commencements had exceeded 400,000 this year, and had been surpassed only in the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking to journalists at UNSW Sydney, Clare said he was “deadly focused” on helping students reach university and “succeed when they get here”. He said people from poor, regional and outer suburban backgrounds faced elevated risks of dropping out, and next year’s reforms – including needs-based funding and “demand-driven funding for equity students” – would address this.

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The revival in domestic commencements follows a pandemic-era decline, particularly among under-represented groups. The latest available Education Department data shows that overall university enrolments fell by 1 per cent between 2019 and 2023, with steeper declines of 6 per cent among socio-economically disadvantaged students and 10 per cent among people from the regions.

This trend continued in 2024, according to student headcount figures published to date in universities’ 2024 annual reports. Enrolments grew by an average of 7 per cent at large and central metropolitan universities, but only 2 per cent at suburban institutions, which cater to more disadvantaged students.

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Regional universities experienced a 2 per cent decline overall, with numbers rising at just two of six rurally based institutions.

Paul Harris, executive director of the Innovative Research Universities network, said international education policy settings – particularly the now superseded “ministerial direction 107” – had “pumped more international students” into the large metropolitan universities, which were increasing their domestic numbers to “balance out” their student profiles.

He said the “trend of greater concentration” in rich universities was mirrored in schools, with about 97 per cent of students in wealthy independent schools , compared with about 74 per cent in government schools.

“My concern is widening gaps in our education system,” he said. “The bounce back in domestic enrolments in university is a really positive sign…but we need to know what’s going on with those key groups of under-represented students. And we don’t have the data.”

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Harris said overseeing “equity group” enrolments should be a key responsibility of the Australian Tertiary Education Commission (Atec), which commences operations as an interim body on 1 July.

While the government says the agency will focus on equity, its precise role and structure remain unclear. Canberra’s preferred approach – to house the “independent” body within the Education Department – was comprehensively rejected by universities last July.

University of Queensland humanities expert Graeme Turner said Atec’s role should include ensuring a geographic spread of higher education opportunities. He said regional universities played a vital role in their communities, but they struggled to compete for research funding, attract top staff and maintain the quality of their courses.

Turner, whose book on the state of the sector is due to be published on 1 July, said the viability of regional universities was under threat. “If there was a way of managing enrolments across the nation, rather than just within [each] institution, the results would be a lot less bloody.”

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com