For many decades, Germany has been famous for its political stability, having had just nine chancellors in the post-war era. But even the country’s memories of its Nazi past have not rendered it immune to the global rise of right-wing populism, with politicians exploiting economic malaise and terrorist incidents to pin the blame on immigration.

And while the centre-right alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU) is leading the polls ahead of Sunday’s federal election, the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is predicted to become the second-largest party in the Bundestag, with about a fifth of the vote.

Moreover, the longstanding taboo against cooperating with the far right was broken earlier this month when the CDU’s leader and Germany’s probable next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, controversially in a failed attempt to pass a motion to further restrict immigration – including a proposal to turn away asylum seekers. That vote came just days after Donald Trump’s right-hand man, Elon Musk, made a supportive speech, via videolink,  and a fortnight before his vice-president, J.D. Vance, spurned the opportunity to hold discussions with Germany’s current, centre-left chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in favour of a .

Merz has repeatedly  forming a governing coalition with the AfD. Nevertheless, there is a widespread sense that its influence on German politics is growing. And many academics fear what that might mean for a sector that depends on international talent. Andreas Keller, vice-president of the German Trade Union for Education and Research (GEW), is one example. He fears that the AfD’s rise poses a “great danger” to German higher education and research. “International academics are already avoiding university locations in eastern Germany, where the AfD is particularly strong,” he notes. Last September, the AfD won a big victory in in the eastern state of Thuringia, taking almost a third of the vote, and came a close second in neighbouring Saxony, though the party is not in government in either state after other parties refused to enter coalition with it.

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Germany welcomed record numbers of international students this academic year, with the total exceeding 400,000. Rising support for the AfD, however, could threaten that trajectory. “Political shifts influence perception,” said Carolina Figueiredo, general coordinator of the international student association DEGIS. “If students feel uncertain about their rights, safety or future opportunities, they may start considering other destinations.”

She said that DEGIS has heard concerns from international students, “particularly those from racialised or ‘visibly foreign’ backgrounds, about experiences of discrimination or xenophobia in daily life”. Students need not experience direct hostility to be impacted, she noted: “When discussions around migration become more restrictive or polarising, it can create uncertainty for international students about their place in German society.”

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Student visa issuance is one area in which the federal government has direct control over universities. Most education policy is determined at the level of its 16 states, known in German as ��ä�Ի���, but the federal government also has other important powers, Keller said. “It can participate in funding; it can attach conditions to funding; it has legislative competence for education funding and for employment law.”

The AfD certainly has motive to exercise those powers, should it ever acquire them. Its manifesto rails against “the increasing influence of ‘woke’ ideology on universities”, and Weidel has pledged to close gender studies faculties and to fire professors despite the enshrining of freedom of research as a constitutional right.

The party’s hostility towards the European Union might worry researchers at German institutions, who are typically among the most successful applicants for funding from EU bodies such as the European Research Council. The AfD has also promised to scrap the bachelor’s and master’s system introduced under the EU’s Bologna Process – a move that would “completely destroy the competitiveness of German higher education”, according to Frank Ziegele, executive director of the Centre for ����Vlog (CHE), a non-profit linked to the German Rectors’ Conference. “It’s the usual backward-looking approach from the AfD.”

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Halil Sagirkaya/Anadolu/Getty Images

The previous German government, which collapsed last November, was known as the “traffic light” coalition after the colours associated with its component parties: Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), the yellow-branded, free-market supporting Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens. The coalition crumbled amid a budget dispute that saw Scholz fire the FDP leader and finance minister Christian Lindner; higher education and research minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger was among the FDP officials who subsequently resigned.

There were some positive advancements for higher education under the traffic light coalition, Ziegele believes: for instance, the long-requested introduction of a yearly, automatic 3 per cent funding increase for universities. But other initiatives did not come to fruition, among them the establishment of a German Agency for Transfer and Innovation (DATI), aimed at facilitating the commercialisation of research.

“A federal institution promoting transfer and innovation is important for our country, and more or less everyone agreed that it is needed,” Ziegele said. But DATI appears in the latest manifestos of the Greens, the SPD and the FDP, he noted, “so I think it won’t be difficult in a new coalition to agree that this is a major field where we need more progress.”

Then there was the failure to reform the German law on fixed-term research positions, known as the WissZeitVG amid concerns that proposals to cut the maximum length of postdoctoral contracts could increase precarity, rather than hasten security. “The statements in the coalition agreement were very promising,” said Keller: “predictability and commitment in the postdoc phase were to be significantly increased. The contract terms of doctoral positions should be linked to the expected project duration. Compensation for people with caring responsibilities or disabilities should be made binding.”

But the failure to enact the necessary legislation means that “the more than 200,000 scientists employed on fixed-term contracts are very dissatisfied,” Keller says. “There is a danger that many will turn their backs on academia. There is great pressure for the next government to tackle this reform in their first 100 days.”

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The socialist party, known as Die Linke (The Left), adopts the GEW’s slogan in its manifesto, pledging “permanent positions for permanent tasks”. However, the party is only likely to be the fifth biggest party in the Reichstag at best, with about 7 per cent of the vote. The bigger parties have made no such pledge.

One barrier to increasing job security for younger researchers is funding. Franziska Röber, chair of English literary studies at TU Dresden, said funding constraints have become “notable” in recent years, telling THE, “There’s certainly less money available, especially for the humanities. It’s become more difficult to finance your projects or get grants.”

The Greens, SPD, CDU/CSU and FDP have all emphasised the importance of basic research in their election campaigns, while The Left has called for “basic funding for universities” to reduce “dependence on third-party funding”. Both the Greens and the CDU/CSU have promised to invest 3.5 per cent (or “significantly more”, in the Greens’ case) of Germany’s gross domestic product in research and development, a pledge Ziegele described as “important”. But if the AfD acquires any power or influence, it will seek to make good on its rhetoric attacking “ideologised climate research, gender research and pandemic research”. And Emmi Kraft, who sits on the board of directors at Germany’s main national student body, fzs, said many academics are “very afraid and concerned” by the prospect.

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Tackling funding “bureaucracy” looms large in manifestos. “What we have in Germany is a completely incoherent funding system,” said CHE’s Ziegele, noting that universities receive block grants from their states but federal funding is “organised as a traditional line item budget”, whereby spending has to be closely accounted for.

In an , German Research Foundation secretary general Heide Ahrens lamented the inability of two successive governments – the coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD, under Angela Merkel, and the traffic-light coalition – to increase the “programme allowance” offered by the main German research funder, the German Research Foundation (DFG). Currently set at a rate of 22 per cent, the allowance is issued to institutions in receipt of third-party research funding to cover indirect costs.

“The rising costs of personnel, energy and infrastructure have been putting universities under increasing pressure for years,”  earlier this month. “The extraordinary inflation rates in the energy sector since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine have dramatically exacerbated this situation. A significant increase from the beginning of 2026 is urgently needed.”

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DPA picture alliance/Alamy

Students, too, are eager to see the next government address their financial struggles. “The cost of living is the most difficult thing for students right now, I would say,” said Kraft. According to Destatis, Germany’s federal office of statistics, , compared with 14 per cent of the general population.

Last year, the government slightly increased the funding available through BAföG, Germany’s student loan and grant system; the housing allowance, for instance, rose from €360 (£298) to €380 (£315) a month. It wasn’t enough, many students say.

“Whether you’re living in Berlin or Munich, which are the most expensive cities in Germany, or in a smaller town, you only get €380 – which is just super unrealistic,” Kraft said. “There are publicly funded university dorms, but there’s just so few that most students can’t even get a room there. So we have to compete in the free market.”

The Left, the Greens and the SPD have pledged to “regularly adjust” BAföG funding based on current living costs, while all three parties have also backed the continuation of the existing “Young Living” initiative, a federal scheme funding the creation of new student accommodation through construction or the conversion of existing buildings.

However, many believe that the BAföG needs more than a cash injection. Keller, for instance, believes that it needs “comprehensive reform”, noting that “one-third of students still live in precarious circumstances and only one out of nine students receive any benefits at all under BAföG.” Moreover, that proportion is falling every year, according to Zeigele: “This is not an attractive system any more.” 

Then there are Germany’s university buildings, which the Greens describes as “often dilapidated or outdated” in their manifesto. “There’s not enough money being invested in these buildings, and at this point it’s starting to become a health risk,” agreed Kraft.

Nor should a future funding programme stop at laboratory, library and lecture hall renovation, said Beate Schücking, president of the German Student Union. “[It] must also take canteens and cafeterias into account; we need at least four billion euros in renovation work here.”

But, AfD or no AfD, it is unclear whether the next government will take up such causes. Among sector leaders, a common lament is the relative absence of higher education from much of the political conversation. “It’s not present in the discussion,” said Ziegele. “In most cases, that’s not the topic [with which] you can convince voters to vote for you.” And that includes issues that directly affect students. 

“Of course, an election also means hope that something will change,” Kraft said: “that we get a new minister for higher education and that maybe they will try to listen more”.

For TU Dresden’s Röber, the “best-case scenario” post-election would be “more funding for all kinds of science, whether social sciences, humanities or natural sciences”. But she is also realistic. “I’d be really happy if they just left us alone,” she says. “No cuts in funding, not closing humanities departments – that would be nice.”

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emily.dixon@timeshighereducation.com